Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Daily Politics: Clinton Rules = Obama Victory

I have been out for two weeks with a sick puppy and a burnt mother board, but I'm back and will be back BIG TIME! I missed writing and now will get right into it.

After her win in OH and RI (I do not mention TX because it was a 2-part contest where Obama won more delegates) TH has been working hard to redefine their case to the SD's. Her M.O. has always been to diminish the Dems in the Red states and build up her Blue state success and she, like ALL bloggers, have been claiming that pledged delegates should not be viewed as more important as the popular vote. The flaw in this is that WE HAVE DELEGATES! If we did not have delegates then I would agree that the popular vote should be the one AND only way to decide our nominee.

So, let's let TH make their popular vote argument. Remember, a popular vote is not only taken from the primaries. The caucuses have a say in this too. This, however, brings me to my next point and TH's next strategy: ignore the caucus results. She has been doing this the whole time anyways and her continual insistance to ignore a large part of this process is careless.

Okay, let's go by TH rules. Count FL and MI and discount popular votes in the caucus states.

Obama: 13,025,003
Clinton: 12,421,316

Hmmm... That's over 600,000 votes that he's leading by. And that's by Clinton rules. That number is almost unstoppable. Now, let's do the real math and see where Obama ACTUALLY stands with the caucus numbers added in.

Turnout Obama % Clinton % Popular vote advantage

IA: 220,588 38 30 Obama +17,646
NV: 117,599 45 51 Clinton +7,055
WA: 250,000 68 32 Obama +90,000
ME: 45,000 59 40 Obama +8,550

Now, his lead is over 700,000. What is we were to add in his TX caucus results. Since this has yet to be certified, I can only guess. There were 1,000,000 caucusers in TX. We'll split it 56-44 (like CNN split it) and that gives him a gain of over 100,000 more.

Now, we're near 850,000 votes that Hillary will have to somehow make up. It's impossible. She can whine about MI and FL all she wants, but it's clear that the arithmetic points to Obama.

Her Rules = His Win

It's almost settled imo...

I said almost.


Mom said...

Glad to have you back!

Sounds good to me....he just needs to keep fighting, not get complacent.

Oncle Jean said...

Glad to have you back in the saddle. I've been missing these.