Thursday, March 27, 2008

Where are the SD's?

There have been repeated calls for Hillary to quit. The math is irrefutable. She can only win by drilling into Obama and making him so tainted that good Rev. White wouldn't cast his ballet for him.

However, as much as I understand the motivation behind this argument, it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense strategically. If one accepts the proposition that Hillary will do anything to win (which is clear), then in what sense is it likely that calling on her to quit for the good of the party will fall TH's ears? They lost their hearing long ago. Of course she's not going to quit. She wouldn't give up this nomination fight if there is a 1% chance of her winning.

As as we have been hearing recently, TH is quite certain that they are tied and that the race is wide open. I've. It seems to me though, that even if you ACCEPT the argument, that "the race is tied," then it makes it even more logical that the SD's should vote now. Will they? Doubtful. Read this article.

Let’s accept the following propositions:

1. The race for the Democratic nomination in it's current form is highly polarizing and is doing damage to the Democratic Party as well as both candidates (and their chances in November).

2. The race is essentially tied at this point. (It's not, but let's think about this from TH's view). Based on current polling data, and estimated delegate counts resulting from that data, there is no reason to think that the current "tie" will be changed by the upcoming contests. So, if one accepts the above propositions, then the question presents itself: What possible reason can there be for SD's not to decide now?

Every day that goes on like this McCain gets a pass. Every day that goes on like this both of our nominees bloody each other. Where is the reward? What possible benefit is there in allowing this to continue? If there is a "tie" than this would be the best time for the to step in. Hillary will win KY and PA. Obama will win the rest. There WILL NOT BE A CHANGE! As Bredesen said, this will be a "tie" in three months as well. It will be a "tie" at the convention.

But wait! It's not a tie; Obama is ahead by every measure! Except that this fact doesn't need to be emphasized because it's so obvious. SD's are deeply involved in the political process. They know very well who is ahead at the moment.

From a tactical standpoint the goal of TH is to drag this out so that Clinton can claw out some kind of victory (maybe a close popular vote) to twist the SD'd arms with and maybe even use the "establishment candidate" argument. At that point TH will surely stop talking about a tie and point to their (hopeful, but doubtful) .00001 percent advantage in the popular vote and count that as the "will of the people." We might even get to hear, "The people have spoken" or "I found my voice" slogans as well.

But whatever kind of victory they imagine it will be somewhat futile at best, especially when both candidates are kneecapping each other (and/or themselves) and the SD's will still need to decide anyway. Since TH has been pounding the "supers should exercise independent judgment" rule like a drum, why not embrace it? (I know.)

The race is a "tie" and will remain a "tie."

The supers should recognize that they will have to break this "tie," either now, or in the future.

The supers should exercise their best judgment and evaluate all the relevant facts at hand (and we know what those facts are).

Having reviewed these relevant facts they should make their judgments and decide now for the good of the party.

There is no reason to delay.

Call or write your SD.

Sherrod Brown
Hon. Chris Redfern - OH Chair
William Burga
Enid Goubeaux
Ronald Malone
Patricia Moss
Charlie Wilson
Marcia Kaptur
Betty Suttor
Tim Ryan
Rep. Zack Space
Rep. Dennis Kucinich

Jim Marshall
Richard Ray
Jimmy Carter

Lincoln Davis
Bart Gordon
John Tanner
Al Gore
Gray Sasser
Dr. Inez Crutchfield
Vicki Harwell
Jerry Lee
Phil Bredeson

Ivan Holmes
Jim Frasier
Rep. Dan Boren (OK)
Reggie Whitten
Brad Henry

I will try and find some telephone numbers and emails for you, but contact your SD!


Oncle Jean said...

Right on the money again with this one. And thanks for putting the names of the SD's out there. I will contact ours.