Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Daily Politics: Big Win

Obama did it. He did it and he did it BIG. This is great news for the Obama camp and bad news for Hillary. She was already spinning her loss before the polls opened, but yet again, her spin must change. Why? Well, first we need to look at some polls.


Let me frame the current debate. Team Hillary (TH) and that includes her camp and supporters have been spouting off a few major claims:
  • "She has a better chance in the GE because she does well in primaries."

Obama DOMINATED the primaries today and he has done well in all of them including the ones he lost. Not only has he performed well in "her" wins, but he has beat her nearly 3:1 in every caucus that he has won. So TH, this claim does not work and today really proved that.

  • "Obama only has the support of activists and the African American identity voters."

Only activists and AA voters? I'm appalled that she would alienate her own base like this. She is dimishing her party's vocal supporters and a group that 95% of the time votes for a Dem. Still, let's look at some of Obama's numbers.

Virginia Obama Demographics

Male 68%

Female 60%

No College Degree 63%

College Graduate 65%

White 52%

African-American 90%

Latino 54%

He won his base and her base. The "Latte Liberals" (a phrase I hate) went for him just as much as those without a degree. He even won the Latino vote. The tides have changed, even since Super Tuesday.

  • "Obama doesn't appeal to the Democratic base. He's too much of a comprimiser."

Some Hillary supporters like to say that he's losing his Dem base. I laugh when I hear this. The Dem base is going nowhere. It's not like they're going to cross the aisle and there is no way that they would stay home and allow the GOP to win again. Obama does so well because he is not polarizing. He appeals to so many kinds of people and his fans don't make your skin crawl.

He's on his way!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting stuff. What about the Republicans coming across to Obama? Where do they factor in? Do not think there are many former Republicans crossing over to Hillary.

Anonymous said...

"Mom" is right. He does appeal to a lot of disaffected Republicans.