Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Daily Politics: Texas, Ohio and TH

If you recall, Bill Clinton said that if Texas did not deliver for Hillary, then she would have to bow out. Her base has also said this and this has been her campaign's strategy in the face of her huge losses this month. However, I'm getting a feeling that she's going to continue even if she loses Texas.

The polls are suggesting that her 20 point lead in Texas has diminished. In fact, most have Obama leading her by five points or so. What does this mean? Obviously, her Guliani-esque "Last Stand" strategy is not working as she thought it would. Surprised? TH thought that by making TX a must win, her fence voters would be guilted into voting for her and this would give her the margin she needed. Well, I remember New Hampshire, but if these polls suggest anything, it's that Obama has made some serious dents into her base and an objective onlooker (if there are any left) could confidently say that a TX loss would be the time for her to concede graciously. And until recently, I had no doubt in my mind that she would bow out.

However, now I am seeing elements of TH starting to make excuses for her potential TX loss or narrow victory. I know they try to soften the blow with this (pathetic) strategy, but how many can we make excuses for? I'm seeing people already thinking that PA is where it will decided and I even read one blogger who was counting on Puerto Rico to go to Hillary.

TH is making the PA argument because they are already starting to give up hope in TX and are trying to redefine their argument that Ohio is actually the important one and Texas is not as crucial.

Hypothetical:

If Hillary loses Texas, both popular vote and delegates, she will trump Ohio (presuming she wins) as a victory and plan on stumping in PA. She will claim that Texas will be red in November anyways and that the will of Ohio is more important. However, she will face instense pressure from the DNC to drop out and the SD's will flock to Obama in order to mend and unify the party. She will drop out while her white woman support will swear to stay home in November. They won't though.

If Hillary wins the popular vote in Texas, but loses the delegate count (which is very possible), she will trump it and Ohio (presuming she wins) as the TRUE will of the people. TH will critisize the DNC, caucuses, Obama and alienate all the other Dem voters. The DNC will still ask her to step down, but not as many SD's will flock to Obama, but a lot still will. She will start stumping in PA, plan debates and intensify attacks on Obama. Her white woman base will become even more vocal, but now the MSM will intervene and start running stories about Hillary being stubborn and asking why she has not dropped out yet. She will not drop out. Still, I don't think she could get the nomination. After PA, it's six weeks until the next one. That gives McCain too much time.

If Hillary wins both the delegate counts and popular vote in both states by a large margin, then she will stay in and we go to PA. This is the road to a brokered convention which some of TH is not too upset about. Talk about selfish...

If Hillary loses both, then she's done. Still her base will start chanting about her wins in MA, NY and CA.

This needs to be over soon. Everyday gets a little worse and the attacks intensify and get dirtier. The goal is a Dem in the WH.

3 comments:

The Gringo said...

I am a Texan living in Puerto Rico. I must say that most of my friends are all saying they are voting for Obama.
Maybe I am friends with them because we think alike though.

I do agree though we need to hurry and get this war over so we can get going with the republicans.

Mom said...

I think I am right there with you but must say this is getting confusing, isn't it?

Oncle Jean said...

Your usual great insights, George. I don't disagree. Unfortunately, I am convinced that TH will be disagreeable to the bitter end.

I am just now listening to Bush bash Obama at a news conference (wonder whom the Republicans are already running against?) about O.'s willingness to meet with people/leaders Bush/Cheney do not like. Oh. and the B/C approaches have worked so well!