The polls have opened and when I wake up tomorrow, they will have closed and the counting will have begun. Obama needs a big sweep and could get it, but there are a few things that need to happen.
Here's my advice to Obama.
- Win ALL three races tomorrow.
- Debate, but not as much as Hillary wants.
- Downplay GE polls.
- Focus on WI, but hit OH and TX hard.
- Make and lead the dialogue especially in regards DNC rules .
- Fight the seating of FL and MI and possibly consider allowing half to be seated if it's an option. Otherwise, fight it all the way.
- Play up the importance of caucuses, but don't alienate CA and NY.
- Pay attention to RI and open more field offices nationwide
- Send your wife to OH and you jump between OH and TX
- Win TX and OH or lose by single digits
All of these are very crucial.
Of course he needs a win tomorrow and three wins would keep the wind in his sails. If he loses one, Hillary will claim overall victory because they have already conceded essentially and if she did win, she would claim that it was an upset and an underdog win. She is not the underdog, so let's not let her spin it that way.
Hill is really pressing the debate issue, but she won't debate on NBC because of the "pimp" comment. Fine, but a debate against Hillary can be good, but make sure you limit it to one this month. Obama can use this single debate to comprehensively outline his policies. If he does not take the helms, she will win another debate. Also, please downplay the unity schtick for the debate. We know it already. This is his chance to shut up some of the venomous middle-aged Hilldog supporters.
Do not quote GE polls suggesting your electability. Dems are not good at judging this and conventional wisdom does not work to our advantage. Plus, it's February and they can and will change.
WI is an open caucus. That is good for him. He needs to solidify support down there and as quickly as possible, get cozy in OH and TX for a few weeks. This is Hillary's last stand and she will fight for it! Take it from her!
He needs to start talking about how he has done very well within the DNC rules and make sure that EVERYONE knows that caucus states are just as important as primary states. Hillary is already trying to say that these races aren't as important. That's smart of her, so he needs to counter that and soon.
While I think he will wrap up the delegates needed without FL and MI becoming a factor, he needs to consider the possibility that she and her supporters will whine. Set the dialogue now. Hillary did say that she thought they should not be counted, but that doesn't matter to me. Howard Dean needs to figure this out and if he bends to Hillary make sure he does not allow anything more than half to be seated (like the GOP). This is a delicate situation because Floridians are not too keen on having their votes not counted and the Dems NEED FL this fall. Be smart.
Caucuses do go in his favor, but do not make claims like "the true America lies in Middle America". That will alienate half of his base. We all know what color middle America is and it's not blue.
RI is small, but don't forget where alot of support is coming from. Keep opening offices.
Send Michelle to OH to motivate the women. You need to bounce between the two. Bill and Hillary are doing it and now Michelle is knockin 'em dead as well!
I know TX and OH are going to be hard to win, but there is plenty of time to narrow that gap.
That's it. I know that I switched between talking to Obama and talkng about him in this post, but who cares. Do that and it's all yours, Obama!