Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Daily Politics: Flawed Strategy

Again, TH made sure to that everyone knew that she was not going to do well in WI and HI well before the polls opened. She can "soften" the loss this way and focus of the states that are "important", but it's just a slimy move imo.

Well, she lost today and she lost BIG. Obama was supposed to win this, but TH started citing some numbers where she was within 2 points of Obama. In fact, I even read that some were calling this another New Hampshire. Well, that couldn't be further from the truth.

Wisconsin went 58-41 to Obama! That number even beat the pro-Obama blog Daily Kos by 6 points! The exit polls are quite telling and if this is any indication of what's to come, then Obama should be able to slide in there without SD's or FL and MI mattering (which would be great). The key to his margin was the woman vote. Obama pulled in 50% of white women. That is TH's last savior and if they lose that support then she's through. He also managed to take some of TH's senior vote (45%). All good news. You can look at these stats yourself and determine that it was a huge win, but I want to look at why Hillary is not doing well.

I can admit that she is an excellent candidate and if Obama was not in the race, I'd probably support her, but her campaign has been dreadful and now we are seeing the worst of it.

From what I can gather, she has only three strategies left and they might be brilliant, but I simply can't see the genius behind them.

  • Demographic Battle

Let's face it, she has not won much and her wins weren't all that impressive (except for MA ). She has excuses for every loss and those have lost validity as Obama seems to continue to rake in her base (white woman, uneducated and the 50,000 or less group). TH loves to claim that the woman, elderly and Latino vote will court her to the nomination. Now, she only has this to bank on. When you publicly make a campaign about demos, then you run the risk of a) alienating the rest of the voters, b) pressuring those demos to vote for you and c) highlighting and showcasing the differences and potenial for fracturing within the party itself. Judging by today's vote and with the exception of Latino's who were not really represented today, she is effectively chopping away at her own base and those chips are falling at the feet Obama.

  • Last Stand

Essentially she is putting all of her money on a BIG Texas and Ohio win. If she wins these handily, then yeah, it buys her some more time, but can she win them handily? I reminded of a certain fellow New Yorker that tried this and soon after dropped out of the race. This is such a flawed strategy even if she wins there. First of all, she is basically saying that small states don't matter. Wrong! Secondly, she is jumping on these states based on demos which is risky and lastly, she isn't that favored. It's suprisingly close in Texas and I'm not sure that Obama won't win Ohio.

  • Attack!!!

Attack anything and everything. I don't need to discuss specifics here, but she is digging into every non-issue. TH is acting so selfish and immature. Her win is more important than a Dem.

If she loses one of these, I expect an immediate withdrawl from the race.


Oncle Jean said...

I do hope you're right about her withdrawing after a loss in either TX or OH. She is one stubborn lady.

Mom said...

Blogging in from Hawaii.

My mind is a bit muddled from Mai Tai's ;) but when I can I am trying to stay up to date. It was fun to be here for the Hawaii caucus.....they delivered big for their native son.

Your blog helps me stay in the loop from the middle of the Pacific.