Thursday, July 17, 2008

Barack Obama Wins the Election!

That's right. I called it and I did so because barring some HUGE and (I mean HUGE) catastrophe, McCain just won't be able to make up the numbers. I know it's July and I know the real dirty GOP stuff hasn't surfaced yet, but some recent polls seem to be suggesting that McCain has some serious issues.

From WaPo,

Registered Voters

Obama McCain
7/13/08 50 42
6/15/08 49 45
5/11/08 51 44
4/13/08 49 44
3/2/08 53 40
2/1/08 47 48
1/19/08 47 45

You can look at the trends and see that Obama has a strong lead with registered voters. This voting bloc in the most crucial and most certain to get out and vote. You could say that Kerry had the same numbers in 2004. Well, he did, but there's a huge difference.

For Obama Against McCain
7/13/08 All 80 18
7/13/08 RV 81 16

Compare to:

For Kerry Against Bush
9/8/04 RV 41 55
7/25/04 RV 41 56
6/20/04 All 44 55
6/20/04 RV 43 55
5/23/04 38 61
3/7/04 38 61

People were voting in huge numbers AGAINST Bush, rather than for Kerry. Not this time. Huge numbers for Obama and that's why these numbers are more significant than 2004.

Here is the kicker though. McCain's only strong point is that he claims to be the strongest Commander in Chief. Luckily for him, the people agree with him. From that same poll, 72% of people think that McCain would make a good C-i-C compared with only 48% who believe that with Obama. That is a heavy blow to McCain. People might think that he would be a better Commander in Chief, but most people seem to think that they would STILL prefer Obama to their President. Ouch. McCain appears to be in check.

Next interesting development is that only 34% believe we have to "win the war in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism to be a success" while 51% believe winning the war in Afghanistan is essential to winning to "broader war on terrorism. This means that the people have adopted the Dems logic on the war on terror. Again, this hurts McCain immensely as it softens his strong point.

Finally, the number one issue for the majority of Americans is the economy. The question is...

"If John McCain were elected President, do you think he would generally continue George Bush's economic policies or not?"

A staggering 63% of those polled said McCain would continue George Bush's economic policies. This is a fact that McCain has said numerous times in his efforts to keep those big GOP donors on board. So, why is this important. Well, maybe because of this question.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling the economy?"

The result: 20% of Americans approve while 71% disapprove.

It appears that McCain's 8 year love affair with Bush will prove to be his end and now all the Obama campaign has to do is be careful, firm and continue to link the two together.

Here it is: Obama wins in November.


Micah said...

I don't think it was a love affair with Bush, there was just no one else to love.

The Morning Clam said...

McCain went out of his way to commend Bush on so many things. While you might not like the terminology "love affair", I think that it is totallty accurate.

He did it for the big GOP donors and now he has to carry some Bush baggage.