Monday, August 04, 2008

Presidential Poll Update

As I have been whining about for the past few weeks as some numbers seem to be tightening (ignore Gallup), you have to look at the composite polls and not one single poll. I have to remind myself of this often, otherwise I will start to hyperventilate.

Here you go...

Research 2000: Obama 51% McCain 39% Barr 3% Nader 2%

Democracy Corps: Obama 49% McCain 43% Barr 3% Nader 1%

CNN: Obama 51% McCain 44% Nader 6% Barr 1%

Pew: Obama 47% McCain 42%

As you can see, Obama has anywhere from a 5 to 12 point lead. Something to look at is how these polls are including Barr and Nader, but it doesn't look like voeters are breaking from Obama, but rather from McCain. McCain's biggest problem with Barr and Nader is that he has very little enthusiam surrounding his campaign. That could be a reason his numbers are being hurt by Barr while Obama's seem to remain fairly static.

Interesting tidbit from the historical cross-tabs. In August 2004, voters "strongly" behind Bush were 32%, and for Kerry they were 28%, meaning the election firmed up pretty quickly, even over the summer. You were either FOR or AGAINST Bush.

This go around the situation is eerily similar to Clinton's elections in the 90s, with 24% of voters strongly backing Obama, vs. 17% strongly backing McCain (17% is a paltry number, btw)...

Looking back historically, in August 1992, Clinton's "strong" voters were at 24%, and Bush Sr's were at 14%. Similar situation in 1996 w/ Dole. Ironically, however, during both of those elections, Perot was able to steal away a lot of voters, and so because Clinton's strong voters were higher, he was able to retain support and consistently polled in the 50s.

What I SUSPECT will happen is that voters will eventually break for Obama after the conventions, especially given his substantial lead among strong supporters...

What do you guys think?