Thursday, August 14, 2008

Obama's VP will be Clark

I have already made one ballsy prediction this season, and now I am going to make another. The ticket will be Obama/Clark. I am confident about this and while many people have said that no one seems to be talking about Clark anymore, I am certain that he will be the nominee.

That once long list has dwindled down to a short one which features less than ten names. Those names are most likely Bayh, Kaine, Biden, Hagel, Clark and Sebelius. I know that Strickland, Rendell, Casey and Clinton have been tossed around, but they were never in serious consideration. We need Strickland to hold down Ohio for us and Rendell and Casey and doing fine in PA. Hillary Clinton would have none nothing for the ticket and would have only fired up the Right. So why not the others?

It shouldn't be Evan Bayh. While we can't ignore his votes against Bush's Supreme Court nominees and his Senate position in a traditionally Red state, he has sided with the GOP too many times on key progressive issues. Yet, the biggest problem with Bayh is that he aggressively supported the invasion of Iraq. He was an outspoken proponent and was hand-in-hand with McCain and Bush. This would be a huge liability for Obama. It is not worth opening himself up to these kinds of attacks just for the the possibility that Indiana might vote for Obama. Bayh would alienate too many Dems and give the left too much ammo. Obama has run on an anti-war and sound judgement platform. Bayh kicks that image in the face. And he's a puss, so Bayh is out.

Kaine would bring outside-the-Beltway credentials to the campaign. The relationship the two share would seem to fit with Obama's desire to find people who can tell him that he's wrong sometimes. And the governor probably would bolster Obama in Virginia, where the campaign is making an all-out push, but I'm not so sure that adding Kaine to that list would add anymore success to Obama's VA bid. He's probably going to win there and then Kaine would be a waste. Furthermore, Kaine has no foreign policy background, and as a first-term governor, he may add to voters' concerns about Obama's experience. Kaine seems to be popular in Virginia, but he has had trouble dealing with Republicans and has no single defining achievement to point to on the campaign trail. Kaine does not help on any of Obama's weaknesses (foreign policy and experience), so Kaine is out.

Sebelius seems like she would be the perfect candidate. She's pro-choice, anti-death penalty, supported legislation allowing children of undocumented immigrants to receive in-state tuition rates at colleges and criticized Bush for unilaterally deciding to send the National Guard to the border. She opposes a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. She supports Second Amendment rights. She vetoed the voter id law in her state. She's good on health care, including for seniors. She's also good for the ticket since she’s obviously acceptable to Republicans having been twice elected Governor of the normally Republican state of Kansas. In other words, she might even take votes from McCain and put Obama over the top (although I believe he's a shoo-in at this point anyway.) This all sounds good, but the catch is that she's not Hillary Clinton. Will the Hillary voters accept another woman as an option? This is something that Obama must consider. Also, the easy criticism is that the Democratic ticket becomes a double-dose of inexperience at the national level. Neither Obama nor Sebelius have enough experience. But when reality sets in, the bottom line will be, contrary to what I repeatedly said and believed during the entire primary campaign, the devil you know actually is worse than the devil you don't. I'm now ready to buy that pig in a poke. A candidate like McCain with bad foreign policy and domestic views is worse than a candidate with good views who may need a little on the job training. Obama and Sebelius are a far better choice than McCain and another four years of Republican rule. We'll see.

Hagel is a Republican. I wrote about this yesterday. Hagel is out.

Biden would be a great attack dog and an excellent foreign policy addition, but it does not bode well for Obama's change meme. An old white guy that is tough on crime and terror does not fit the mold. Biden is out.

So, that leaves one man for the job: Retired Gen. Wesley Clark. I have written about why Clark needs to be the VP here, here, here, here, here and here. Still, no matter how much I think that he should be the nominee, it wasn't until I read the line up for the DEM convention that I decided it would be Clark. The Vice Presidential candidate speaks at the Democratic Convention on Wednesday night. The theme that night is "Securing America's Future." So the VP candidate is someone who fits with that theme. Also, according to another report I read elsewhere, military veterans are part of the night's theme. Could Gen. Wesley Clark be back in the ballgame? His organization is called "Securing America's Future", the same name as the night's theme.

Is it a tease? Doubt it. Expect Wes Clark to be the VP.


Harriet said...

Let's see..last week you predicted Baye and that the announcement would take place in IN before the Olympics. Now back to Clark. He did rub a lot of people the wrong way with his comment about being a prisoner of war or getting shot down not qualifying you to be President. We shall see....

Harriet said...

Oops...Bayh! (sp)

Sid said...

I agree. I would love for Clark to be VP, but I think that one comment will keep him off the ticket. Remember how the media had a field day with the Michael Moore comment when Clark was running? So far, the Obama camp has distanced themselves from the comment, but that will be impossible if Clark is VP. Of course the comment has been drastically taken out of context. I think that it is something that should be discussed more. McCain's record is not that impressive when you look at Clark's. I hope you are right though.

Sid said...

Also, I don't think you can count Hillary out yet. There has been some sketchy stuff going on between them lately. I don't think he will pick her but you never know.